Let's (briefly) start with economic factors. The words "credit crunch" are never out of the media at the moment. What practical effect, if any, has this Phrase of Doom had on the London on- and off-trades? The press would have us believe that no one is eating out these days, painting a bleak picture of families huddled behind closed curtains, washing their dinners of bread and cheese down with nothing so extravagant as wine. At least from where I am sitting, this is not borne out at all. At the merest hint of sun, the restaurant and cafe tables in the central London street where I work are filled to capacity with lunchtime covers from the nearby offices.


which is the true picture?
On the other hand, the strength of the euro against the pound does appear to be having an impact. We saw record price rises in French, Spanish and Italian wines this year (on the back of a particularly punitive budget, which is another story). The effect of this on the shop floor is that customers who would instinctively have headed for the old world sections are now venturing towards the likes of Chile, Argentina and South Africa.
The increasing health-consciousness of the UK means that people are drinking significantly less than in yesteryear (as Giles Coren's recent programme on the gastronomic debauchery of the 1970s showed brilliantly). However, we are also becoming more selective; the increasing education of the wine-drinking masses is being translated into pennies and pounds as decreased volume consumption but an increased average spend per bottle. Out with generic oaked Aussie Chardonnay, in with the boutique wineries of Otago and Priorat.
Which brings me neatly onto the organic wine phenomenon. Although the wine variant of this lags considerably behind the Whole Foods revolution, it has already given rise to some interesting anomalies. Witness the new Hoxton "eco" restaurant Watermark which says it will give preference to organic wine - fair enough - but that it will not consider any non-European wines on "carbon footprint" grounds, a frankly risible attempt to jump on the fuzzy green bandwagon. If Watermark et al actually looked at the detail of wine shipping, they would find that sourcing wine from a landlocked part of Europe such as Rioja entails a lot of to-ing and fro-ing by lorries, which have much less capacity and therefore pollute far more than one (large) sea cargo vessel from say Nelson (coastal New Zealand), which in many cases can deliver almost to the front door of a bonded warehouse in east London.
So in a nutshell, notwithstanding a mild battering by duty rises and exchange rates, the London wine trade in 2008 is struggling on, reluctantly passing on price rises to the consumer and doing its best to be proactive and keep up with the increasing sophistication of the public (even when such sophistication does occasionally sacrifice common sense in the interests of trend-setting).